Since the beginning of 2020, the development environment and prospects of the entire external market have been greatly impacted by the COVID-19 epidemic. The scale, scope of influence and government investment of this epidemic are more than 10 times that of SARS in 2003. Judging from the development trend of the current epidemic, its influence on the future will be multifaceted.

The impact of the epidemic on the office market in Shanghai will be determined by multiple variables, such as the time cycle of the epidemic, the economy environment, the industry adjustment, the re-identification of the city's competitiveness, the change of real estate policy, the change of product competitiveness, the crisis facing the owners, and the changing values of the demand side. Under the current development node, this article will briefly discuss some of the above problems, so as to bring some relatively rational judgments on the impact of the epidemic on the office market in Shanghai.

Judging from the development trend of the epidemic and the response of each country, China's economic environment has the opportunity to greatly shorten the gap with the developed countries.

Affected by the "shuffling effect" brought by the epidemic, the industry development hot spots and the development structure of each industry in the stage cycle will undergo large-scale adjustment, and the industry market will enter a period of development adjustment.

From the policy point of view, the policy provided by the country has a certain stimulus effect on the real estate, but the effect is relatively limited. Local policies are strongly supportive. With the growth of the epidemic cycle, it is expected that favorable policies will increase in the later period.

As a major foreign import-oriented city, Shanghai has a high proportion of operational properties, and it is expected that the period of real estate affected by the epidemic will be relatively long.

Although affected by the epidemic, there is a certain amount of suppressed demand in the market, but from the perspective of the current economic and real estate development, the market will face a shrinking demand in the short term. At the same time, since the overall supply market is in a state of excess, the overall market is expected to show an obvious cyclical trough in 2020.

Affected by the epidemic, retail market turnover continued to fall. Due to the impact of the economic environment and relatively more restrictive conditions for the product itself, in the absence of policy support, it is expected that in a longer period of time, the retail market will remain at a low ebb.

1.The lease market is expected to be more active, but new demand is unlikely to keep pace with growth。 The vacancy rates are expected to rise, while rents are under downward pressure. The competitive environment will be tougher;

2.If there is no significant policy support, the retail market will be difficult to improve  as a whole. In terms of product category, the retail market will be still dominated by non-traditional standard office products;

3. The block trade market is just expected to usher in a periodic window period. Both buyers and sellers will have a great transaction intention;

4. On the product side, the pace of intellectualization of hardware and software and big datamation will be improved, and the upgrading demand of office products' facilities and equipment will be increased.

The strategy research team of Transmit provides whole-process and customized consulting services for commercial real estate investors and property owners, covering land acquisition, planning and design, marketing and promotion, asset management appreciation and delisting, which "escort" investors' decisions!